Embedded Files
These numbers don't match up. Sales Tax predictions are way off. and how does Denver recover in less than one year from 2026. and highly exaggerated by the mayor's gaslighting story, to voters to get reelected in 2027.
Your skepticism is shared by local critics and political observers, who have pointed out similar inconsistencies regarding the timeline and the data. The mayor’s announcement coincided directly with the launch of his reelection campaign, leading many to view the sudden optimistic shift with suspicion.
Here is how the data breaks down, along with the math behind the city's claimed "recovery."
1. The Sales Tax Predictions: A 3.5% vs. 5% Discrepancy
The confusion around the sales tax numbers stems from the administration shifting the benchmark years to make the growth look more impressive:
The One-Year Projection (2026 to 2027): In the actual budget ledger, sales and use tax is projected to rise 3.5% (an increase of $32.5 million, moving to $970.7 million).
The Mayor's Soundbite: In public statements and campaign press releases, Mayor Johnston stated that sales tax is projected to be 5% higher. However, that 5% figure is a two-year comparison measuring 2027 against 2025 data, skipping over the flat growth of 2026. Critics point out that framing a two-year recovery as immediate economic momentum is misleading to Denver voters'.
2. How is Denver "Recovered" in Less Than One Year?
The short answer is it hasn't fully recovered; the city just lowered the baseline.
The city is coming off a massive $200 million budget deficit. The reason the 2027 budget looks stable (with no new layoffs or furloughs) isn't because of a sudden massive boom in revenue, but because of severe structural cuts made previously:
The 2025/2026 Cuts: The city laid off 169 people, implemented mandatory employee furlough days, instituted hiring freezes, and cut departmental spending.
The "Growth" Illusion: Because the city already slashed spending "to the bone" during the deficit crisis, the budget required to run the city dropped. Therefore, a tiny revenue growth of just 1.1% (a minor $17.5 million bump over 2026) is being framed as a successful economic turnaround, even though overall revenue growth has fundamentally slowed to a crawl compared to the post-pandemic years.
3. Downtown "Data Mining" vs. Citywide Reality
To support the narrative that his administration's policies are working, the mayor heavily highlighted specific hyper-local data: [1]
He noted that sales tax revenue along the 16th Street Mall corridor jumped 18% year-over-year.
Local analysts point out this is a skewed metric: the 16th Street Mall had been under heavy, disruptive construction since 2022 and only fully reopened in late 2025. A large spike in sales tax there is an expected result of a construction zone reopening, not necessarily an indicator of a citywide economic boom.
Selective Neighborhood Focus: While highlighting the 16th Street Mall revival, the administration's promotional messages gloss over outlying neighborhoods and secondary commercial corridors where business activity remains sluggish or stagnant under broader economic pressures.
Commercial Property Tax Delays: The narrative relies heavily on short-term retail consumer spending, ignoring potential upcoming headwinds in commercial property tax valuations due to persistent office vacancy rates in downtown Denver.
While the budget technically balances without further painful cuts, the narrative of a booming, rapid recovery is a calculated political message tailored for a reelection cycle by Crisis Decay and Debt Troll Bitch #mikejohnstonco, @2027denversmayor. ...
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse